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The aggravation of the Karabakh conflict has entered a new stage. After the beginning of fighting, Yerevan has threatened by diplomatic recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Currently the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has diplomatic relations only with partially recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as with unrecognized Transnistria. Armenia, whose satellite is the de facto NKR, in every way behind the scenes helps its residents in various fields, such as economics, certification, and defense, however, the official recognition of Stepanakert as a separate political entity Yerevan has not stated. One reason is the reluctance of the political elites of Armenia to go to the complication of relations with neighbors, but it seems that exactly such a scenario to avoid unlikely: the conflicts will be, regardless of recognition or non-recognition of the NKR by Yerevan.
In the world after Kosovo the diplomatic recognition of certain States is a question of political will and the availability of rather iron arguments to defend their principles. Yerevan has such arguments: Armenia is going to defend itself in Nagorno-Karabakh, and not to use this bridgehead as offensive. It is at least without a special need: to reflect approach of the opponent is always easier, especially rising from the plains, and there is actually a full-fledged mountain fortress. In other words, it is time for political will: Yerevan has enough military forces to keep these positions.
Therefore, the question of political feasibility arises: Armenia has extremely strained relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moreover, in fact the country is at war with both neighbors: if Yerevan and Ankara it is more political in nature, a full-fledged violent confrontation is with Baku.
In the case of the recognition of NKR by Armenia, the forecast can be only one: the sharp deterioration of the already bad relations with Turkic neighbors. Although, if this escalation is going to start to make faster progress than anticipated, the establishment of diplomatic relations between Yerevan and Stepanakert can be the only possible response to the emerging challenges.
However, we cannot exclude that Georgia will join the blockade of Armenia by Turkey and Azerbaijan: Tiflis, as we know, very painful experiences which has already become final divorce of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are the allies of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the presence of a large Armenian Diaspora in Georgia may hold Tbilisi “hawks” from this adventure: unrest in Javakhetia is useless, because to destabilize the situation can very easily. With the presence of problematic regions such a scenario for Georgia likes a death.
It is likely the deterioration of Armenia’s relations with Iran: up in the North of the country is home to large and influential Azerbaijani Diaspora. Although for Tehran it would not too favorable: the loss of allies in the face of Moscow and Damascus may be critical.
It can be stated that recognition of Karabakh by Armenia seriously reformats the whole situation not only in Transcaucasia, but also in more distant territories. For example, there will be more arguments for Kurdistan, which is struggling for self-determination; it also can help the Donbass, especially in light of the fact that Bandera’s Ukraine has clearly taken Pro-Azerbaijani positions.
At least, it is clear that the world will never be the same again.
Alexander Dmytrievsky
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