Today, December 1, Ukraine intends to conduct a missile firing in the air space near the Peninsula of Crimea. Marked by Ukrainian military space is the territory of the Russian Federation, which was the reason for the Russian side to demand that, the Ukrainian government to abandon this venture. But Kiev ignored the appeal of Moscow.
The response from Russian representatives followed immediately: the Ukrainian attaché in Russia was handed a note of protest, and the armed forces stationed on the Peninsula, were brought into high combat readiness.

The reason of military provocation

As has been repeatedly noticed by various politicians and analysts, the current leadership of Ukraine is on the brink of failure and so-called “revolution” by and large did not take place.
The political elite of the Ukrainian state – both the ruling coalition and all possible opposition – are in a state of irritation. Literally each of the representatives of certain political forces is trying to execute own ideas, and not the plans of his party or allies. Compounding this situation further is the fact that the rapid decline in virtually all social, economic and political indices in Ukraine, says about of the coming and inevitable collapse of the existing system, and therefore each dishonest Ukrainian leader, while having the opportunity to fill their pockets, with maximum effort, and does it.

And what in this situation thinks and takes the President of Ukraine? Yes, literally anything reasonable! He is also a participant in this farce and his hostage. On the one hand, Petro Poroshenko skillfully used the Ukraine crisis and significantly increased his capital, and occupied the post of the puppet and scapegoat, who in the future will be dumped almost all the blame for what is happening in Ukraine. Given the duality of the situation, Ukrainian “guarantor of the Constitution” (by the way, repeatedly personally spit on it) will not take any radical measures to address conflict issues and resolve the crisis. Like others, he will just continue to replenish his stocks.

It turns out that the task of the Ukrainian politicians for their own enrichment is still not done as they have installed. And the ability to continue is running out. Besides, the West is beginning to change the attitude to Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile it’s clearly in favor of the latter. This means the leaders in Kiev will go for the using of various, even the most dirty and despicable methods, trying to change the situation.
What the “abroad” will do

Many are now wondering the question what Europe and the United States are going to take in the case of different scenarios today. There are not unambiguous assumptions on this question. As practice of the last two decades shows, Western countries can silent in that moment, when all are waiting for any reaction from them, and to intervene when it is least needed.

Something like this happened during the conflict in South Ossetia. Georgia under the leadership of Mikhail Saakashvili, a staunch supporter and protégé of “overseas partners” — has started the shelling of Tskhinvali, with the hope that help of NATO allows to solve military questions. But the alleged ally has not shown military support.

Diametrically opposed actions the West has taken during the Yugoslav war. NATO’s intervention has led to the fact that the conflict has got an extension, and once a single state eventually collapsed. Although, it would seem that the region is located very far from the US, the Americans showed an active intervention in the conflict.

Everything depends on political goals and ambitions. Is now Ukraine and its desire to escalate the conflict with Russia the aim of the West is not entirely clear. There are too many internal problems now in the EU and the US to be distracted by this expensive and unprofitable project, as modern Ukraine.

If the decision to conduct missile firing over the territory of Russia is a private initiative of Kiev, it is a huge and stupid mistake.

In favor of the theory about their own decision of the Ukrainian leadership, are saying some of the publications of Ukrainian Internet portals. In particular, the “Apostrophe” lifted the curtain that hides the motives of this impulsive and ill-considered plan.

“We must not whine on the Board of PACE, they say, extend sanctions against Russia… we have the right to conduct any missile firing, any military exercises and any activity in that area… This is very good information and psychological impact on Russia. Any attempt to resist us forces, notes — anything — will cause sharply negative reaction of the international community… After the fifth incident, everyone will understand that this is a good occasion to talk about the extension of sanctions,” is written in one of the articles publication.

It may be too expensive the price for Kiev’s wish to create “an occasion to talk about the extension of sanctions” against Russia.
Russia’s actions

What will Russia’s actions be in the event of rocket firings by Ukraine? The answer to this question is very simple: the use of force. Nothing more is in the case when all diplomatic methods and measures have had an effect.

Whatever it was, and in the international arena, the leaders are those countries that are able to conduct not only political activities, but still have a powerful military potential. Let’s be honest: if not for its military power, Russia has long ceased to exist, as the largest country in the world. And probably it would have happened almost immediately after the collapse of the USSR.

If Russian does not allow people to make fun of it by the most powerful player in the international ring (without a shadow of a doubt it can be argued that while the United States really is), that we can talk about a bunch of idiot politicians, the oligarchs, who imagines himself a great all-powerful rulers and generals, who temporarily seized the leadership over the Ukrainian people. Moreover, the warnings are received repeatedly.
Different motives and a different outcome

As shows all the same story, all of the above may be a bad guess. But the real motives may be either much simpler (just a “tease and make its nervous” neighboring state), or can be very tricky and confusing plan.

Given the victory of Trump, who is not so aggressively disposed towards Russia (at least yet) in the last presidential election in the United States, as well as a number of the incident and the alleged victories of the Pro-Russian candidates in Europe, some Western leaders could easily decide to play VA-Bank.

Realizing that it left to play not very long, the political elite which is now in power may in any way wish to start a conflict with Russia, to be able to say, “there is our enemy is, we go on the offensive!”

But even such developments in Russia are ready. The Russian people are used to protect themselves, even if the enemy seems strong, and gathered a lot of allies. Only then for those, who started such a game it should be clear: victory is not guaranteed, and the retribution of all these acts is extremely high.

Victor Bereg


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